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CABE MONECO-ECONTRO POLICY CONFERENCE

Monday, August 26 – Tuesday, August 27, 2019

DELTA KINGSTON WATERFRONT Hotel
1 Johnson Street, Kingston, ON  K7L 5H7
Phone: 613-549-8100

 

Don't miss out!  Registration closes Thursday, August 22nd!

 

Moneco-Econtro 2019 Schedule ☜

 

Hotel Bookings:

Please note that the Delta Waterfront Hotel is now fully booked for August 26th.  If you have not yet booked your hotel room, CABE recommends:

Sheraton Four Points

285 King St E, Kingston, ON K7L 3B1

(613) 544-4434

 

 

The People Vs. The Economy: Is Populism Rewriting the Economic Rules?

It’s been a long time since politics have been so polarized, or since beliefs have eclipsed evidence in so many high places. This summer, we will gather at our annual summer outlook meeting as

  • Canadians are on the verge of voting for the next federal government.
  • The federation is deeply divided on strategies regarding climate change and energy.
  • International trade relations are strained.
  • The global economy is decelerating due to population aging and slowing trade.
  • Extreme climate events are occurring with increased frequency.
  • Anti-migration sentiments are escalating, even as the need for immigrants grows.
  • Geopolitics are becoming more uncertain and volatile.

While the world is awash in change, many economic problems remain stubbornly constant. A decade after the financial crisis, has anything really changed in how the world of finance is governed, or how gains are distributed? Are the populists right that the game is rigged, and that the status quo is not serving the interests of the majority? Is populism actually rewriting the economic rules? Or simply making the rules harder to follow? These timely questions will spur discussions at CABE’s Moneco-Econtro conference in August.

We plunge into the spirit of the moment on Monday evening with economist Stephanie Kelton, perhaps the most eloquent protagonist of Modern Monetary Theory. Professor Kelton was Chief Economist for the Democratic Minority on the U.S. Senate Budget Committee in 2015, economic advisor to Bernie Sanders’ 2016 campaign, and is senior economic advisor for Bernie2020. From her contributions to Bloomberg Opinion, The New York Times and the LA Times, to her forthcoming book, The Deficit Myth, Dr. Kelton clarifies for students and experts alike how economics and politics shape one another. Agree or disagree, you will not be bored.

Tuesday tackles a range of difficult debates for applied economists on topics such as the relevance of outlooks; the future of export-led growth strategies; the evolution of Canada’s energy sector; and the heart of so much populist momentum, labour issues. Instead of expert lectures on these themes, we have assembled a range of economists and experts with different views. The day will feature two morning and two afternoon sessions as follows:

  1. Erratic Politics and Macro Outlooks
    Brett House, Scotiabank; Frances Donald, Manulife; moderated by Peter Hall, Export Development Canada

  2. Shifting Trade Patterns
    Mark Warner, MAAW Law; Kevin McGurgan, UK Consul General; AngellaMacEwen, Canadian Union of Public Employees; Hasan Tarique, Argus Media; moderated by Kevin Carmichael, National Post

  3. The Politics of Energy
    Peter Tertzakian, ARC Energy Research Institute; André Plourde, Carleton University; Nancy Olewiler, Simon Fraser University; moderated by Chris Lawless, BCI

  4. Labour Pains
    Elise Gould, Economic Policy Institute; Tony Stillo, Oxford Economics; moderated by Bonnie Lemcke, Ontario Financing Authority

This conference has a long and distinguished history. Every August, usually on the last Monday and Tuesday of the month, the Canadian Association for Business Economics (CABE) hosts a policy conference in Kingston, Ontario. This annual gathering has its roots over 50 years ago as it evolved from the Moneco-Econtro conference which had been organized in Kingston since 1961 by a group of business and government economists to discuss the key issues affecting the Canadian economy. https://www.cabe.ca/jmv3/index.php/tabe-presentations-documents-2/canadian-business-economics/cbe-52-11bra-pdf. Take part in the unfolding conversation of Canada’s economic story.

Registration Information

 
National and/or Chapter Member
Non-Member
Early Bird Rate
$400+HST
$550 +HST
After August 8
$500+HST
$650 +HST

 
Conference proceedings run from Monday (August 26) evening at 17:30, through to 17:00 on Tuesday (August 27). Registration begins at 17:30 on August 26.

To access the member discount, you must be logged in to the web site as a valid national or chapter member.

Fees do NOT include hotel accommodation. A limited block of rooms will be held at the conference rate of $175 plus taxes until July 26, 2019. They have been known to sell out before the hold date expires. The group block is held under the name CABE CONFERENCE. Please call the hotel directly at 1-888-548-6726 or (613) 549-8100 to book a room.

The hotel's kitchen is one of the best in Ontario, always providing an exquisite 4-course dinner (with complementary wine) on Monday. Tuesday offers a delicious breakfast and served lunch, with vegetarian and feasible dietary restriction options on request at both meals. Please indicate meal preferences on your registration.

Please use the registrant’s email on the registration if payment details have different contact information.  The payment email can be entered at the appropriate stage.  Receipts will go to the payor.

Cancellation Policy: Cancellations must be received in writing prior to August 15th, 2019 to be eligible for a refund. A service charge of $50.00 will apply. Substitutions are accepted up to August 21.

For all information or assistance please contact the CABE Secretariat at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. or call 1-855-CABE321/1-855-222-3321.

 

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CABE Salary Survey 2017 - March 2018 Release

Dear colleagues:

I am pleased to announce that CABE has just released its 2017 Salary Survey Report. This is the first salary survey that CABE has released since 2010. 

CABESalarySurveyCoverMarch2018

Highlights of what we learned from the respondents to  our sample include:  

  • The median salary for an economist working full-time in Canada was $100,000 to $125,000 annually. 
  • ·Reported salaries varied by industry sector, region, and experience. For example, the median entry-level salary for economists in Canada was $50,000 to $60,000.
  • Half of respondents also reported receiving additional compensation, such as bonuses and stock options, with median compensation in the $10,000 to $20,000 range.

The report looks at differences in compensation by gender, visible minority status, education and job title; provides information about access to retirement, vacation and other benefits, as well as professional development supports; and details the survey methodology.

Members can access the full report for free at this link (Salary Survey )using their CABE login. Its use is exclusively for members, and is not available for circulation or reproduction.

We hope this report will aid Canadian economists in their employment paths and compensation negotiations, and help employers understand how their compensation and benefit practices compare to other organizations. 

Next week, CABE will be circulating a survey to assess the professional development needs of economists working in Canada. I encourage you all to participate, so CABE can evolve to better serve your needs.  

Sincerely

Armine Yalnizyan

President, Canadian Association for Business Economics 

Name

Affiliation

Position

Armine Yalnizyan

Yalnizyan and Associates

President

Paul Jacobson

Jacobson Consulting Inc.

Past President

Randall Bartlett

Institute of Fiscal Studies and Democracy

Vice President

Joe Macaluso

Retired

Treasurer

David Chaundy

Atlantic Provinces Economic Council

Board Member

Peter Hall

Export Development Canada

Board Member

Rahatjan (Kira)  Judge

Federated Co-operatives Ltd

Board Member

Chris Lawless

BC Investment Management Corp.

Board Member

Bonnie Lemcke

Ontario Financing Authority

Board Member

Gil Nault

Alberta Energy

Board Member

Sarah Piercy

Sarah Piercy Communications

Board Member

Antonia Prlic

Prlic Consulting

Board Member

Jamie Ronson

PSP Investments

Board Member

Bryan Yu

Central 1 Credit Union

Board Member

 

Michael C. McCracken 1940-2015

 

Your Executive wishes to convey some very sad news to you. Mike McCracken passed away last night, Monday, September 28th. He was 75 years old.

Mike was one of Canada's leading economists and a pioneer of Canadian economic modelling. His work shaped both economic analysis and economic debate in this country for decades. At the young age of 25, Mike moved from Texas to start his Canadian career at the Economic Council of Canada, where he served as the first Director of the CANDIDE macro-econometric modeling project, the biggest such model of the Canadian economy and the biggest in the world, at the time. Seven years later, in 1972, he co-founded and became President of Informetrica, which became one of Canada's first independent forecasting and economics consulting firm, serving industrial and public sector clients in Canada and abroad. Informetrica developed the TIM family of econometric models of Canada and the provinces; a Local Area Economic impact model; and a software suite for building and maintaining large scale economic models.

Mike's contributions to Statistics Canada's National Accounts Advisory Committee will have an influence on our profession for many years to come. It is a testament to his talent and insights that the Canadian Economics Association has established a Mike McCracken award for economic statistics. https://economics.ca/en/mccracken.php

He was broad-minded and a lateral thinker; always astute and to the point; and always extraordinarily generous with his expertise and time, especially with non-profits. He had a profound influence on many in the profession. This extended to his remarkable nurturing of younger economists. Informetrica Limited was the training ground for many business and government sector economists. He will be sorely missed.

It is hard to overstate Mike's role in supporting and building up CABE. The current structure of CABE reflects his vision for our profession. Your executive will consider some way of marking Mike's contributions to the profession in the coming weeks.

Policy making suffering in Canada without the long-form census

(contributed to G&M 5/11/2014)

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/its-time-policy-makers-return-to-the-long-form-census/article21462343/

A longer version of this article is available as a PDF at this link.  Jacobson -OPED on-Long Form Census  

The heated debate over skills shortages to the leftAand temporary foreign workers reminds us how much Canadians have lost as a result of the government’s move four years ago to scrap the mandatory long-form census. Without the granular data on jobs and wages across the country that was among the survey’s most valuable components, it has become all but impossible to draw intelligent – or even accurate – conclusions about these and other critical aspects of economic policy.
Fortunately, not all is lost. The member of Parliament for Kingston and the Islands, Ted Hsu, will see his private member’s bill debated for the first time in the House of Commons on Thursday. It would require the government to restore the mandatory long-form census. Parliamentarians from all parties would do their country a service by supporting Mr. Hsu’s initiative.

The replacement of the census questionnaire by a voluntary national household survey, known as the NHS, has become a major concern for the more than 900 members of the Canadian Association of Business Economics.

We predicted from the start that the demise of the mandatory long-form census would create serious problems. Experience has taught that most organizations, whether businesses, governments or charities, do much of their work at the local level, and thus rely heavily on detailed geographical statistics for planning, selling, employing, building, donating and many of their other economic activities.

Our concerns have turned out to be fully justified.

Many Canadians have chosen not to respond to the voluntary household survey at all, or to complete only part of the survey form.

The highest non-response rates have been in rural and low-income areas where the need for robust data is arguably most pressing to support sound decision making. While it is difficult to generalize, non-response rates in urban areas appear to be highest at each end of the income spectrum.

Statistics Canada wisely decided in 2010 to publish data collected by the household survey only for areas with a response rate of at least 50 per cent. The result is that data are no longer available for a quarter of Canada’s towns and counties. In Saskatchewan, the loss is over 40 per cent; in Newfoundland and Labrador, over 30 per cent. These are the two fastest-growing provinces in Canada.

Comparisons between towns, counties and regions have become impossible in too many cases, even in heavily populated urban areas. Comparisons between neighbourhoods – once a staple of census analysis – are now of questionable feasibility.

Discrepancies in individual responses are even more worrisome. Because the new survey is not mandatory, responses to questions, especially those toward the end, are less accurate and comprehensive than was the case with the census.

Perhaps the biggest casualty of the switch to the new survey is the ability to analyze trends over time – among the most critical components of any research tool. The household survey and the long-form census are so different that we are no longer able to compare different periods in a statistically rigorous way.

We see nothing wrong in requiring Canadians by law to complete a survey as important as this one. Even in the U.S., where trust in government is not exactly high, the American Community Survey is mandatory. The authorities have reasoned – and few citizens have objected – that a mandatory response is the only way to ensure adequate data quality.

If the government in Ottawa can be persuaded to bring back the mandatory long-form survey for the next census, due in 2016, we will have a gap of 10 years since the last such exercise.

That may not be ideal, but it would be acceptable. The full census was conducted at 10-year intervals prior to the introduction of the current five-year cycle in 1986. Indeed, a 10-year break would be less disruptive than continuing with the new household survey, which leaves us with a complete break in historical data.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper said recently that “you can’t manage what you can’t measure.” His comments were made in the context of child and maternal health, but they apply equally to other areas of policy making, and drive better performance in business planning and economic analysis.

Paul Jacobson is president of the Canadian Association of Business Economics.